Order Stability in Supply Chains: Coordination Risk and the Role of Coordination Stock

The bullwhip effect describes the tendency for the variance of orders in supply chains to increase as one moves upstream from consumer demand. We report on a set of laboratory experiments with a serial supply chain that tests behavioral causes of this phenomenon, in particular the possible influence of coordination risk. Coordination risk exists when individuals' decisions contribute to a collective outcome and the decision rules followed by each individual are not known with certainty, for example, where managers cannot be sure how their supply chain partners will behave. We conjecture that the existence of coordination risk may contribute to bullwhip behavior. We test this conjecture by controlling for environmental factors that lead to coordination risk and find these controls lead to a significant reduction in order oscillations and amplification. Next, we investigate a managerial intervention to reduce the bullwhip effect, inspired by our conjecture that coordination risk contributes to bullwhip behavior. Although the intervention, holding additional on-hand inventory, does not change the existence of coordination risk, it reduces order oscillation and amplification by providing a buffer against the endogenous risk of coordination failure. We conclude that the magnitude of the bullwhip can be mitigated, but that its behavioral causes appear robust.National Science Foundation (U.S.) (Grant SES-0214337)Mary Jean and Frank P. Smeal College of Business Administration (Center for Supply Chain Research)Sloan School of Management (Project on Innovation in Markets and Organizations

Reforming Reimbursement for the US Food and Drug Administration’s Accelerated Approval Program to Support State Medicaid Programs

Importance The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has an accelerated approval program that has become the subject of scholarly attention and criticism, not only for the FDA’s oversight of the program but also for its implications for payers. Observations State Medicaid programs’ legal obligations to provide reimbursement for accelerated approval products have created fiscal challenges for Medicaid that have been exacerbated by industry’s changing use of the accelerated approval program over time. Although strategies for accelerated approval reforms have been proposed, most focus on reforming the FDA’s accelerated approval pathway and product regulation without taking into account the implications of this pathway for state Medicaid programs. There is a need for policy reforms that balance the goal of speeding approval of important medicines with states’ real concerns regarding spending on medications with little evidence of clinical benefits. Areas of potential reform include formulary exclusion, Medicaid rebates, value-based pricing, and consolidated purchasing or carve outs. Conclusions and Relevance Policy makers may wish to consider options for reforming reimbursement for accelerated approval products in addition to reforms to the FDA’s operation of the pathway. Policy reform proposals can provide a range of options to evaluate trade-offs of access and pricing

Recent Trends in Medicaid Spending and Use of Drugs with US Food and Drug Administration Accelerated Approval

State Medicaid programs have reported concerns about rising drug prices and spending, particularly regarding drugs entering the market through the accelerated approval program under the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The accelerated approval program enables the FDA to approve drugs on the basis of unverified surrogate end points, meaning that clinical benefits for these products are uncertain at the time of approval. However, state Medicaid programs are legally required to cover these drugs. Little is known about the set of products with accelerated approval over time, their use among Medicaid beneficiaries, or the magnitude of their financial influence on state Medicaid programs. OBJECTIVE To identify the number and class of drugs approved through the FDA’s accelerated approval pathway and analyze state Medicaid programs’ use and spending on these drugs from 2015 through 2019. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS In this cross-sectional study, biannual FDA reports were used to identify products granted accelerated approval and their associated indications approved between December 1992 and December 2020. State Medicaid Drug Utilization Data files available for 1992 through 2019 were used to estimate national totals for spending and use of outpatient drugs. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES National Medicaid use and gross and net spending on drugs with accelerated approval from 2015 through 2019. RESULTS Since the inception of the FDA’s accelerated approval pathway in 1992 through 2020, 216 product-indication pairs granted accelerated approval were identified, comprising 149 unique products. The composition of drugs approved through the pathway has changed over time, with 28 of 30 (93.3%) product-indication pairs receiving accelerated approval in 2020 being indicated for cancer. Relative to all outpatient prescription drugs paid for by Medicaid, products with accelerated approval ranged from 0.2% to 0.4% of use (1.3-2.4 million prescriptions annually). Despite their infrequent use, drugs with accelerated approval represented a minimum annual net spending on all drugs covered by Medicaid of 6.4% ($2.2 billion of$34.6 billion) in 2015 and a maximum of 9.1% ($2.5 billion of$27.6 billion) in 2018. Estimated annual gross spending on drugs with accelerated approval ranged from $4.2 billion to$4.9 billion over 2015 through 2019, and estimated net spending from $2.2 billion to$2.6 billion. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE In this cross-sectional study of 216 drugs granted accelerated approval, state spending on drugs approved through the FDA’s growing accelerated approval program represented an outsized amount of spending relative to use. Because drugs with accelerated approval have come to market on the basis of trials using surrogate end points, considerable amounts of this spending may have been attributable to products with unproven clinical benefits

2016-17 Concerto Competition Final Round

The 2016-17 Concerto Competition culminates in this performance featuring students competing to perform as a featured soloist with the KSU Symphony Orchestra on April 26, 2017.https://digitalcommons.kennesaw.edu/musicprograms/1695/thumbnail.jp

Diffuse Brain Injury Induces Acute Post-Traumatic Sleep

Objective Clinical observations report excessive sleepiness immediately following traumatic brain injury (TBI); however, there is a lack of experimental evidence to support or refute the benefit of sleep following a brain injury. The aim of this study is to investigate acute post-traumatic sleep. Methods Sham, mild or moderate diffuse TBI was induced by midline fluid percussion injury (mFPI) in male C57BL/6J mice at 9:00 or 21:00 to evaluate injury-induced sleep behavior at sleep and wake onset, respectively. Sleep profiles were measured post-injury using a non-invasive, piezoelectric cage system. In separate cohorts of mice, inflammatory cytokines in the neocortex were quantified by immunoassay, and microglial activation was visualized by immunohistochemistry. Results Immediately after diffuse TBI, quantitative measures of sleep were characterized by a significant increase in sleep (\u3e50%) for the first 6 hours post-injury, resulting from increases in sleep bout length, compared to sham. Acute post-traumatic sleep increased significantly independent of injury severity and time of injury (9:00 vs 21:00). The pro-inflammatory cytokine IL-1β increased in brain-injured mice compared to sham over the first 9 hours post-injury. Iba-1 positive microglia were evident in brain-injured cortex at 6 hours post-injury. Conclusion Post-traumatic sleep occurs for up to 6 hours after diffuse brain injury in the mouse regardless of injury severity or time of day. The temporal profile of secondary injury cascades may be driving the significant increase in post-traumatic sleep and contribute to the natural course of recovery through cellular repair

Promotion of Prescription Drugs to Consumers and Providers, 2001–2010

Background: Pharmaceutical firms heavily promote their products and may have changed marketing strategies in response to reductions in new product approvals, restrictions on some forms of promotion, and the expanding role of biologic therapies. Methods: We used descriptive analyses of annual cross-sectional data from 2001 through 2010 to examine direct-to-consumer advertising (DTCA) (Kantar Media) and provider-targeted promotion (IMS Health and SDI), including: (1) inflation-adjusted total promotion spending ($and percent of sales); (2) distribution by channel (consumer v. provider); and (3) provider specialty both for the industry as a whole and for top-selling biologic and small molecule therapies. Results: Total promotion peaked in 2004 at US$36.1 billion (13.4% of sales). By 2010 it had declined to $27.7B (9.0$370 million (8.8% of sales) spent on promotion, top biologics were promoted less, with only $33 million (1.4% of sales) spent per product. Little change occurred in the composition of promotion between primary care physicians and specialists from 2001–2010. Conclusions: These findings suggest that pharmaceutical companies have reduced promotion following changes in the pharmaceutical pipeline and patent expiry for several blockbuster drugs. Promotional strategies for biologic drugs differ substantially from small molecule therapies

Asthma in Inner-City Children at 5–11 Years of Age and Prenatal Exposure to Phthalates: The Columbia Center for Children’s Environmental Health Cohort

Background: Studies suggest that phthalate exposures may adversely affect child respiratory health. Objectives: We evaluated associations between asthma diagnosed in children between 5 and 11 years of age and prenatal exposures to butylbenzyl phthalate (BBzP), di-n-butyl phthalate (DnBP), di(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP), and diethyl phthalate (DEP). Methods: Phthalate metabolites were measured in spot urine collected from 300 pregnant inner-city women. Children were examined by an allergist or pulmonologist based on the first parental report of wheeze, other respiratory symptoms, and/or use of asthma rescue/controller medication in the preceding 12 months on repeat follow-up questionnaires. Standardized diagnostic criteria were used to classify these children as either having or not having current asthma at the time of the physician examination. Children without any report of wheeze or the other asthma-like symptoms were classified as nonasthmatics at the time of the last negative questionnaire. Modified Poisson regression analyses were used to estimate relative risks (RR) controlling for specific gravity and potential confounders. Results: Of 300 children, 154 (51%) were examined by a physician because of reports of wheeze, other asthma-like symptoms, and/or medication use; 94 were diagnosed with current asthma and 60 without current asthma. The remaining 146 children were classified as nonasthmatic. Compared with levels in nonasthmatics, prenatal metabolites of BBzP and DnBP were associated with a history of asthma-like symptoms (p 70% higher among children with maternal prenatal BBzP and DnBP metabolite concentrations in the third versus the first tertile. Conclusion: Prenatal exposure to BBzP and DnBP may increase the risk of asthma among inner-city children. However, because this is the first such finding, results require replication. Citation: Whyatt RM, Perzanowski MS, Just AC, Rundle AG, Donohue KM, Calafat AM, Hoepner LA, Perera FP, Miller RL. 2014. Asthma in inner-city children at 5–11 years of age and prenatal exposure to phthalates: the Columbia Center for Children’s Environmental Health Cohort. Environ Health Perspect 122:1141–1146; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.130767

Automatic B cell lymphoma detection using flow cytometry data

Background: Flow cytometry has been widely used for the diagnosis of various hematopoietic diseases. Although there have been advances in the number of biomarkers that can be analyzed simultaneously and technologies that enable fast performance, the diagnostic data are still interpreted by a manual gating strategy. The process is labor-intensive, time-consuming, and subject to human error. Results: We used 80 sets of flow cytometry data from 44 healthy donors, 21 patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL), and 15 patients with follicular lymphoma (FL). Approximately 15% of data from each group were used to build the profiles. Our approach was able to successfully identify 36/37 healthy donor cases, 18/18 CLL cases, and 12/13 FL cases. Conclusions: This proof-of-concept study demonstrated that an automated diagnosis of CLL and FL can be obtained by examining the cell capture rates of a test case using the computational method based on the multi-profile detection algorithm. The testing phase of our system is efficient and can facilitate diagnosis of B-lymphocyte neoplasms

Prenatal phthalate and early childhood bisphenol A exposures increase asthma risk in inner-city children

To the Editor: We previously reported that inner-city childhood asthma was independently associated with measures of early childhood exposure to bisphenol A (BPA)1 and prenatal, but not childhood, exposures to di-n-butyl phthalate and butylbenzyl phthalate (BBzP). 2 Here, we evaluate whether these 2 classes of endocrine-disrupting chemicals interact to increase the risk of asthma. We evaluated 292 inner-city women and their children aged 5 to 11 years from the Columbia Center for Children's Environmental Health birth cohort of pregnant women who delivered between 1998 and 2006. Enrollment, exclusion criteria, and a description of the cohort have been reported previously.3 Subjects were selected for the present study on the basis of the availability of (1) measurements of phthalates in spot urine collected from the mother during pregnancy (33.9 ± 3.1 weeks' gestation) and BPA in child urine at ages 3 (n = 237), 5 (259), and/or 7 (n = 161) years; (2) data on child asthma and wheeze-related outcomes; and (3) availability of model covariates. Demographic characteristics of Columbia Center for Children's Environmental Health subjects are provided in Table E1 in this article's Online Repository at www.jacionline.org. All participants gave written informed consent

Innovative Solutions for State Medicaid Programs to Leverage Their Data, Build Their Analytic Capacity, and Create Evidence-Based Policy

As states have embraced additional flexibility to change coverage of and payment for Medicaid services, they have also faced heightened expectations for delivering high-value care. Efforts to meet these new expectations have increased the need for rigorous, evidence-based policy, but states may face challenges finding the resources, capacity, and expertise to meet this need. By describing state-university partnerships in more than 20 states, this commentary describes innovative solutions for states that want to leverage their own data, build their analytic capacity, and create evidence-based policy. From an integrated web-based system to improve long-term care to evaluating the impact of permanent supportive housing placements on Medicaid utilization and spending, these state partnerships provide significant support to their state Medicaid programs. In 2017, these partnerships came together to create a distributed research network that supports multi-state analyses. The Medicaid Outcomes Distributed Research Network (MODRN) uses a common data model to examine Medicaid data across states, thereby increasing the analytic rigor of policy evaluations in Medicaid, and contributing to the development of a fully functioning Medicaid innovation laboratory